President Elect 2008 Electoral College Projection (10/31/2008)

President Elect's analysis of the 2008 Electoral College vote, pitting Republican Senator John McCain against Democratic Senator Barack Obama, shows that if the election were today the United States would be electing its first black President.

President Elect projects that Senator Obama will win 353 electoral votes and Senator McCain will win 185.

This is the last update before I make the site's final projection the day before election day. So here is a rundown of where things stand and what we might expect to see in the coming days.

McCain has one long shot road to the White House. He would have to take Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado away from Obama, while holding onto Missouri, Georgia, and Indiana. That would give him 274 electoral votes. Is that possible? The polls in all those states are running at 5% or less between the candidates, so yes the possibility is there that with enough voter turnout (or a lack of it for Obama) McCain could pull it off. But it would take a turn of a historic proportions for him to be able to get that done in the next four days.

As far as I'm concerned Obama has the election all but won. The only question now is by how much will he win. I think there is a wide range it could be in. At the top the most I believe he could conceivably win is 379. The least would be the McCain win above giving Obama 264. Most likely is somewhere in the 315-355 range.

Here's what to look for in the coming days. Missouri and Indiana are extremely tight -- the only reason they're pink right now is because of their recent voting tendencies. Virginia and North Carolina are creeping back towards the McCain camp. But with only four days left it may be too little too late. Ohio and Florida are very close, but they have been consistently close for Obama for some time now. That steadiness (in contrast to a state that is close but fluctuates back and forth between the candidates) makes me feel they will probably stay in his column. Media reports have said Pennsylvania, Montana, North Dakota, and Arizona are in play but I don't think so.