In the Spotlight: The Great Plains and the Rockies Bush v. Kerry 2004 Electoral College Analysis by Philip Fowler September 26, 2004 In the Presidential Election of 2004, the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states are once again ignored. Sure, Vice President Cheney has made a stop in his home state of Wyoming, and Senator John Edwards, the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate, has made a single stop in Fargo, North Dakota. But there is a historic reason why the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states, and their 48 electoral votes, won't be on either campaign's itinerary. As a general grouping, the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states I'm referring to are: North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), and Colorado (9). Although Iowa and Missouri are sometimes included under the label 'Great Plains states', the focus here is on those extremely intractable ten. It is interesting to note that this region has also produced a few major party Presidential candidates: Democrat George McGovern of South Dakota in 1972, Republican Alfred Landon of Kansas in 1936, and Democrat William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska in 1896, 1900 and 1908. Every one of these candidates lost their home states in their campaigns for the White House (actually Bryan lost Nebraska only once -- in 1900). In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson won 44 states in his landslide victory over Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. The Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states were among those 44. It was the only time since 1936 that they voted Democratic together. However, 1964 aside, this group of ten states has been firmly lodged in the Republican column and there appears to be no end to this trend anytime soon. As a matter of fact, even before Johnson's landslide election, these states stayed true to form - voting Republican together as a bloc -- starting in 1952. Yet, in 48 years of voting the same ticket, there has been only one time when they all weren't in the same column on Election Night. It was in 1992. That these ten Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states have stuck together since 1952 is truly monumental, but that one exception was revealing. In 1992, the country decided between 3 major candidates rather than the usual two. Billionaire businessman Ross Perot had poured millions into his own candidacy and had appealed so strongly to the media that he garnered two appearances to debate both President Bush and the Democratic challenger, Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas, on network television. The appearances gave Perot instant credibility. The results of this three-way decision impacted much of the country with Perot's vote tallies making dents into the natural political followings of both Bush and Clinton. And it hit this naturally conservative, rural region with a wallop: two GOP strongholds, Colorado (8) and Montana (3), went to Clinton, while Kansas (6) and Wyoming (3) went half-heartedly to President Bush. A very portentous example was found in usually reliable GOP cornerstone Montana. The state had flirted with going Democratic four times since the Eisenhower years. Montana had given John Kennedy 48% of the vote in 1960, 42% for Hubert Humphrey in 1968, 45% for Jimmy Carter in 1976, and even 46% of the vote to Michael Dukakis in 1988. But unlike George Wallace's more regional third party run in 1968, Perot's candidacy was enough to topple the proverbial apple cart. In 1988, Montana awarded George H.W. Bush 52% of the vote; four years later he won only 35% -- a loss of 17%. The Democrats lost points, too -- 9% of the vote from their total in '88. This gave Perot 26% of Montana's vote. Although not enough to turn the tide of the general election, Governor Bill Clinton was the beneficiary and went on to win the White House in 1992. Colorado's numbers were similar: Perot took roughly 23% of the vote, Bush received 17% less than in '88, and Clinton received 5 percent less of the vote than Dukakis had four years earlier. The dents in the GOP's take in both Kansas and Wyoming in 1992 were just as significant and the resulting figures far from their bedrock usual. Kansas gave the GOP 17% less than the 1988 totals while the Republicans lost even more in Wyoming--by a whopping 21 percent! All in all, 1992 proved that a third party candidate is one way of splitting up the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states clique. Another way to make these states competitive in the future may be wholly dependent upon changing the demographics of the area. But a serious effort by the Democratic candidate might be enough to wedge a few of these, namely Montana and Colorado, out of 'R' column on Election Night. Ignored, the 48 electoral votes of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states will remain the dominion of the GOP for the foreseeable future. And with that kind of guarantee -- and intractability -- there's little reason for either challenger to make the trip this campaign season. In the Spotlight: The Great Plains and the Rockies Bush v. Kerry 2004 Electoral College Analysis © Philip Fowler Philip is a retired U.S. Marine Corps Gunnery Sergeant. He is married and a father of 7, and works as a Programmer/Analyst (SAS & SQL) in Indiana. He is a critical student of ancient history and U.S. Presidential history and is a staunch supporter of the Electoral College.

	If you have any questions, comments, gripes, error reports, corrections, etc., feel free to send them to email@presidentelect.org. original content and graphics unless otherwise noted © 1999-2008 James R Whitson