What if the Electoral College is tied at 269 in 2004? Part 2 - Analysis by James R Whitson October 25, 2004 The following is an updated version of article originally written for the 2000 election. Part two analyzes the possible outcomes of an Electoral College tie. Part one discusses the procedure that would be followed in the case of an Electoral College tie ANALYSIS Trying to figure out how an election thrown to the House might turn out is very difficult, if not impossible. There is no doubt that each Representative will consider many factors when casting their vote. But I'm here to inform you about this possibility, so I'll do my best! Before we delve into other factors that might influence the vote, let's look at a House vote where every Representative votes strictly along party lines. Keep in mind that it will actually be the 109th Congress doing the actual voting if a tie occurs. Since the election has not yet taken place, this analysis uses the current members of the House. With these considerations in mind, if every Representative votes strictly along party lines, the House would elect George W. Bush as President with 30 states. John Kerry would receive the votes of 16 states. Four states would split their vote and not be counted (see map graphic below). In an actual House-thrown presidential election, I'm sure most of the Representatives would consider several other factors other than their own party affiliation. The most important factor would be the popular vote outcome. If Bush were to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, I believe many Democrats would cast their vote for him instead of their man, and I think many Republicans would do the same if the situation were reversed. If you were paying close attention to part 1 of this article, you might have noticed that it is possible for the president and vice president to be from different parties. Since the Senate vote is a straightforward individual vote, the party in power basically has control of the vote. Republicans have a 2 seat advantage right now, and the 34 seats up for grabs are expected to keep the Senate close to a 50/50 split. Here the voting factors are a little different. Whichever candidate the House picks, the Senate may decide it's in the best interests of the county to give him his VP choice. However, the Senate might look at the tie in the Electoral College and decide the best outcome is to split the executive branch and give the President a vice president from the other side of the aisle. CONCLUSION Keep in mind that this is all speculation on my part. If Kerry were to win the popular vote, the Republicans might still vote for Bush, and vice versa. However, I believe most Representatives would understand that to put their party affiliations over what is best for stability in our electoral system would be wrong. A tie in the Electoral College would most probably result in the popular vote winner being elected President. The VP choice, however, is up in the air. It all depends on what the Senators think is in the best interests of the country - stability and harmony or political divisiveness in the executive branch. Also see: What if the Electoral College is tied at 269 in 2004? Part 1 - Analysis What if the Electoral College is tied at 269 in 2004? Part 2 - Analysis © James R Whitson, President Elect

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