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What if the Electoral College is tied at 269? Part 1 - Procedure

ANALYSIS
Trying to figure out how an election thrown to the House might turn out is very difficult, if not impossible. There is no doubt that each Representative will consider many factors when casting their vote. But I'm here to inform you about this possibility, so I'll do my best!

Before we delve into other factors that might influence the vote, let's look at a House vote where every Representative votes strictly along party lines. Several assumptions had to be made for this analysis that you need to be aware of before taking this into consideration.

1: The 107th Congress will be doing the actual voting if a tie occurs. Since the election has not yet taken place, this analysis uses the current members of the House.
2: There are two independents in the House. One usually votes with the Democrats, the other with the Republicans. That tendency has been assumed here.
3: Two Representatives recently died, and as far as I can find have not yet been replaced. I have placed their votes with their party.

With these considerations in mind, if every Representative votes strictly along party lines, we would have another extremely close vote. The House would elect George W. Bush as President with 26 states. Al Gore would receive the votes of 20 states. Four states would split their vote and not be counted (see map graphic below). As you can see, this vote would be so close that a switch of just one seat in the upcoming election could completely change the outcome!

In an actual House-thrown presidential election, I'm sure most of the Representatives would consider several other factors other than their own party affiliation. The most important factor would be the popular vote outcome. If Gore were to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, I believe many Republicans would cast their vote for him instead of their man, and I think many Democrats would do the same if the situation were reversed.

If you were paying close attention to part 1 of this article, you might have noticed that it is possible for the president and vice president to be from different parties. Since the Senate vote is a straightforward individual vote, the party in power basically has control of the vote. Republicans have a 4 seat advantage right now and are expected to hold onto it. Here the voting factors are a little different. If Bush won the House vote, then the Senate would easily choose Cheney for VP. If Gore were to win the vote, Lieberman would probably win the VP vote. However, the Republican controlled Senate might look at the tie in the Electoral College and decide the best outcome is to split the executive branch and give Gore a Republican vice president.

CONCLUSION
Keep in mind that this is all speculation on my part. If Gore were to win the popular vote, the Republicans might still vote for Bush, and vice versa. However, I believe most Representatives would understand that to put their party affiliations over what is best for stability in our electoral system would be wrong. A tie in the Electoral College would most probably result in the popular vote winner being elected President. Cheney, though, might want to keep his options open no matter who the House picks.