President Elect's 2004 Computer Analysis by James R Whitson November 1, 2004 President Elect's final computer analysis of the 2004 presidential race predicts that Republican candidate George W. Bush will defeat Democratic candidate John Kerry. According to the computer, which takes into account current poll data, past elections, and state voting tendencies, Bush will win 293 electoral votes from 32 states, while Kerry will win 245 electoral votes from 18 states and DC. If "on the edge" states are not included, the count is Bush: 200, Kerry: 200, toss ups: 138. The table below is the actual computer output. The "score" column determines which candidate is projected to win the state. A negative number means Bush is projected; a positive number means Kerry is projected. The closer the score is to zero the slimmer the lead. If a score is within 400 points of zero, the state is considered "on the edge" and could easily be plucked away by the other candidate. If a score is over 2400 points from zero, the state is considered "locked in" and virtually impossible for the other candidate to win. Previous results: 10/28/2004 - Bush 283 electoral votes from 31 states, Kerry 255 electoral votes from 19 states and DC. If "on the edge" states not included, Bush: 205, Kerry: 183, toss ups: 150. 10/25/2004 - Bush 277 electoral votes from 30 states, Kerry 261 electoral votes from 20 states and DC. If "on the edge" states not included, Bush: 232, Kerry: 190, toss ups: 116. 10/21/2004 - Bush 300 electoral votes from 33 states, Kerry 238 electoral votes from 17 states and DC. If "on the edge" states not included, Bush: 205, Kerry: 179, toss ups: 154. 10/14/2004 - Bush 283 electoral votes from 31 states, Kerry 255 electoral votes from 19 states and DC. If "on the edge" states not included, Bush: 211, Kerry: 186, toss ups: 141. 9/29/2004 - Bush 293 electoral votes from 32 states, Kerry 245 electoral votes from 18 states and DC. If "on the edge" states not included, Bush: 226, Kerry: 164, toss ups: 148. 9/23/2004 - Bush 294 electoral votes from 32 states, Kerry 244 electoral votes from 18 states and DC. If "on the edge" states not included, Bush: 207, Kerry: 181, toss ups: 150. - see PE's official projection...

	If you have any questions, comments, gripes, error reports, corrections, etc., feel free to send them to email@presidentelect.org. original content and graphics unless otherwise noted © 1999-2008 James R Whitson